Predicting 2025: Crypto, AI, and Tariffs Loom Large
Plus the odds of success for Scott Bessent & Howard Lutnick
Welcome back to Money Games, my monthly take on sports, business, and all things leadership. Thanks for reading and subscribing, and please share with your friends and colleagues.
— Joe
In this issue:
Do Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick Have What It Takes?
My predictions for 2025
BAM Leadership Lesson
DO SCOTT BESSENT AND HOWARD LUTNICK HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO STEER THE ECONOMY?
As Trump begins his second term, I took a close look at two of his less controversial cabinet nominees, hedge fund manager Scott Bessent and Cantor Fitzgerald Chairman and CEO Howard Lutnick. The two are nominated for Commerce and Treasury, respectively, and both bring a wealth of experience and serious financial and economic chops. There’s little doubt that either of them can do the job they’ve been nominated for. However, that depends on their ability to manage up in a notoriously difficult environment. We’ll be able to tell pretty quickly whether either of them has trouble handling Trump.
You can read the full piece over at Forbes.
What I Predict Will Happen In 2025
Each January, I make a few educated guesses about what the year ahead holds, and as a new president takes office, I wanted to do so once again.
Last year, I argued—among other things—that geopolitical tensions had never been higher, particularly around Russia, Ukraine, Israel and North Korea. Go figure, North Korea sent soldiers to Russia to fight in Ukraine.
I also predicted at most a mild downturn or a soft landing in the U.S. economy, rather than a major recession. I suggested that hedge funds and institutional investors understood just how to deal with meme stocks (leaving them to the unofficial union of day traders) and that tech would continue to be the big story in the markets.
I wrote that the Power Five (now Four) would continue to move in the direction of separating from the NCAA, and that unionization was coming to college sports. These are both ongoing processes, although Dartmouth’s high profile unionization effort has taken a step back because of expected changes at the NLRB under an incoming Trump administration.
So, what does 2025 hold?
Inflation & the Stock Market:
I’m bullish on the market — the most bullish I’ve been in a very long time. The Federal Reserve has done a good job bringing interest rates and inflation down. They may ease a few more times in 2025, but that will depend a bit on what the incoming President, who is probably as pro-business as any in history, will do. There will be a big emphasis on deregulation which will also be great for M&A activity.
Crypto:
Trump’s going to be the Crypto President, and Bitcoin and related assets are going to continue doing well. Tech titans like Elon Musk and Marc Andreesen have entered Trump’s inner circle, and the crypto world expects executive orders loosening regulations.
Artificial Intelligence:
The AI boom will continue to be the big story in the tech industry and beyond, and it appears to be following the trajectory of dotcoms and the internet in the 1990s. It’s like we’re in 1994, only with AI instead of the internet. We’ve likely still got a few years ahead of us before the bubble bursts and we see who the real winners and losers are. The jury’s still out on what the Pets.com of AI will turn out to be.
Financial Services Sector:
In part because of how pro-business and pro-stock market the incoming President will be, financial services and the large investment banks are going to do very, very well.
Energy:
This is a big question mark, because the more you drill—which is something Trump apparently wants to do a lot of—the more you’ll drive down prices.
Tariffs:
For tariffs to be effective, rather than just driving up prices for consumers, they have to be strategic and smart. An across the board tariff on products from Mexico or China would be disastrous, but if instead they’re used as a negotiating tactic and then only put in place in a targeted way, they could yield some modest results.
Geopolitics:
As was the case in 2024, this remains my single biggest concern. The war between Russia and Ukraine has only grown more desperate, other countries are being dragged into it, and the Middle East is in flux. China remains an arch competitor. Complicating matters, U.S. allies may experience whiplash with the change in administration. The threats to global stability are very, very real, and our country is as divided as it’s ever been, limiting the ability of the U.S. to lead internationally.
College Athletics:
The NCAA is going to continue to look for help from Washington, but it’s unclear that anyone wants to help them. Efforts to break away D1 revenue sports—especially football—will accelerate.
My Golf Game:
It will remain a work in progress. Before I went back to coaching football, I was a good 13. Then I went to a 50 where I couldn’t win anything, because all of my attention was on football. I’m currently a 24 from the forward tees, but my goal is to be in the teens by the end of the summer.
Share your thoughts and predictions for 2025 with me in the comments.
BAM LEADERSHIP LESSON OF THE MONTH
January’s lesson comes from the late, great Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.:
“The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”
Is it too late to get into the crypto game? If not, what would you recommend? Must be liquid.
No doubt that your golf handicap will be in the low teens by mid summer. You'll be ready for a BIG MONEY GAME by then.